Historical Context During the Cold War, the United States sought to gain strategic intelligence on Soviet military capabilities, particularly regarding submarine and missile technologies. In the early 1970s, U.S. intelligence agencies discovered the existence of an undersea communications cable in the Sea of Okhotsk, connecting the Soviet Pacific Fleet’s base at Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka
Continue reading Sigint: Operation Ivy Bells – Sea of Okhotsk, 1971–1981
Historical Context In October 1962, the United States discovered Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles being installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from its shores. This revelation triggered the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tense 13-day standoff between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. To monitor the missile installations, the U.S. conducted high-altitude reconnaissance missions using Lockheed U-2
Continue reading Sigint: The 1962 U-2 Shootdown over Cuba – October 27, 1962
Historical context: During the Cold War, the United States conducted regular signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations using both aircraft and naval vessels to monitor the electronic communications of rival states. These missions were crucial to national security strategy and often took place in close proximity to the territorial waters of adversaries such as the Soviet Union,
Continue reading Sigint: The USS Pueblo Incident – Sea of Japan, January 23, 1968
Historical context: During the Cold War, electronic intelligence (SIGINT) missions were a vital part of U.S. strategic operations. American aircraft routinely patrolled the peripheries of Soviet, Chinese, and North Korean airspace, collecting communications and radar data. These were unarmed reconnaissance flights, operating in what the U.S. classified as international airspace, but always within geopolitical hot
Continue reading Sigint: The EC-121 Incident – Sea of Japan, April 15, 1969
Executive Order 14255 of March 31, 2025 creates a new initiative—the United States Investment Accelerator—to streamline and support major investments in the U.S. economy, particularly those over $1 billion. The order asserts that current U.S. regulatory systems are overly complex and burdensome, slowing down investment, construction, and economic growth. It aims to remove unnecessary regulatory barriers, improve coordination across
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Selective attention is a crucial cognitive function that allows the human brain to focus on specific stimuli and filter out background noise, be it visual, auditory or conceptual. In other words, it’s as if the mind has a spotlight: it illuminates one aspect of the sensory experience while leaving the rest in semi-darkness. Imagine listening
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“Grace Hopper and the Invention of the Information Age, by Kurt W. Beyer, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2012, explores the life and work of Grace Hopper and her significant contributions to the early development of computing and the subsequent emergence of the Information Age. The book delves into Hopper’s experiences, beginning with her time at the
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The digital euro is a proposal by the European Commission, currently at an advanced stage of legislative development, aiming to introduce a new form of central bank money in digital format, directly accessible to the public — meaning citizens and businesses — for retail payments. It is neither a private cryptocurrency nor a mere electronic payment tool, but
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The European Commission has presented two strategic initiatives to strengthen the Union’s security and defence capability: the White Paper on European Defence – Readiness 2030 and the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 Plan. These tools aim to respond both to the immediate need to support Ukraine, and to the need to strengthen the strategic autonomy and resilience of the European defence industry in
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https://www.corriere.it/economia/finanza/25_marzo_17/perche-l-italia-non-sa-scegliere-tra-trump-e-l-europa-le-7-verita-a-cui-gli-elettori-hanno-diritto-e-la-lezione-del-covid-dbc0ce20-49f5-4d06-b1bb-b9645aa7cxlk.shtml Federico Fubini’s article analyses Italy’s delicate position in the current geopolitical context, highlighting how the country is struggling to choose between an alliance with Europe and maintaining a privileged relationship with the United States. The author uses the experience of the Covid-19 pandemic as a metaphor for understanding the challenges of common European defence:
Continue reading Comments on the article by Federico Fubini: ‘Why Italy can’t choose between Trump and Europe’
The European Council reaffirms the need for Europe to enhance its sovereignty, self-reliance in defense, and capacity to address current and future security threats. The war in Ukraine underscores the urgency of strengthening European defense through increased funding, strategic autonomy, and industrial capacity. Key measures include: • Defense Financing: The Commission is urged to activate the
Continue reading European Defense: Special meeting of the European Council (6 March 2025)
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has introduced the “ReArm Europe” initiative, aiming to enhance the European Union’s defense capabilities in response to escalating security threats. The plan proposes mobilizing up to €800 billion for defense investments, focusing on both immediate support for Ukraine and long-term reinforcement of Europe’s security infrastructure. The initiative comprises
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Judgment of the Court in Case C-233/23 | Alphabet and Others 25 feb 2025 A company holding a dominant market position that has created a digital platform may abuse its dominance if it refuses to make that platform interoperable with an app developed by a third party, even if the platform is not essential for
Continue reading A refusal by an undertaking in a dominant position to ensure that its platform is interoperable with an app of another undertaking, which thereby becomes more attractive, can be abusive
A National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) was issued with the stated purpose of encouraging foreign investment while safeguarding national security, particularly against potential threats posed by foreign adversaries such as the People’s Republic of China. The NSPM underscores the importance of foreign investment for economic growth, job creation, and innovation, leveraging the United States’ financial
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an IMF blog post https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/09/12/trade-balances-in-china-and-the-us-are-largely-driven-by-domestic-macro-forces The document argues that the trade balance (the difference between exports and imports) of China and the United States is primarily driven by domestic macroeconomic factors rather than industrial policies aimed at boosting exports. Why Has China’s Trade Surplus Increased and the US Deficit Grown? • In China, weak domestic demand—caused
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Establishing a U.S. sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is a concept that has garnered both interest and skepticism. While it presents opportunities for strategic investment and economic resilience, it also poses significant challenges given the United States’ fiscal landscape and political environment. The Executive Order 14196 of February 3, 2025 directs the Secretary of the Treasury
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North Carolina has become a prominent hub for data centers in the United States due to a combination of strategic location, favorable economic policies, and robust infrastructure. Strategic Location and Infrastructure Situated on the East Coast, North Carolina offers proximity to major metropolitan areas like New York, Washington D.C., and Atlanta. This location provides excellent
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The decisive turning point that fundamentally transformed the system of campaign finance in the United States did not occur through congressional legislation, but rather through a ruling of the Supreme Court: Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, issued in 2010. In this landmark decision, the Court held that restrictions on independent expenditures by legal entities—such as
Continue reading The turning point that transformed the system of campaign finance in the United States
A lie rarely springs from thin air; it is shaped around an imagined outline of the listener’s hopes, fears, and plausibilities. Oscar Wilde, in The Decay of Lying, calls deception “the telling of beautiful untrue things,” yet insists that such beauty depends on knowing exactly what will tickle the other’s imagination. Harry Frankfurt warns that the
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The European Commission has issued a Recommendation (EU) 2025/63 of 15 January 2025 (on reviewing outbound investments in technology areas critical for the economic security of the Union) urging EU Member States to review outbound investments by their companies in non-EU countries, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies—three strategic sectors posing the highest risks to economic security. The
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The concept of risk has become increasingly salient in international relations, particularly in the context of decision-making under uncertainty, strategic forecasting, and global governance. Despite its ubiquity, risk remains an elusive and contested notion. Within the discipline, there is a growing recognition that risk is not merely a measurable probability but a constructed and contextual phenomenon shaped by normative
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The Council Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/3188 of 16 December 2024, enforcing Regulation (EU) 2024/2642, introduces targeted restrictive measures against individuals and entities involved in destabilizing activities attributed to the Russian Federation. A significant portion of these measures addresses actions specifically related to Africa. The sanctions reveal a distinct African dimension, structured around two key axes: Disinformation and information manipulation
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Judgment of the General Court in Case T-526/19 RENV | Nord Stream 2 v Parliament and Council
The Council of the European Union has approved a declaration outlining a shared understanding among the EU and its member states regarding the application of international law to cyberspace. This milestone affirms that international law remains robust and relevant in addressing the digital domain. The declaration emphasizes that states are bound by established rules and
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A quite interesting paper by RAND: Blinders, Blunders and Wars The document points out that strategic blunders — serious missteps with unintended negative consequences — often stem from leaders relying on oversimplified or flawed mental models to navigate complex decisions. These distorted models, far removed from objective reality, lead decision-makers to dismiss or misconstrue critical
Continue reading A quite interesting paper by RAND: Strategic blunders — serious missteps with unintended negative consequences — often stem from leaders relying on oversimplified or flawed mental models to navigate complex decisions
Strengthening Europe’s preparedness is urgent as it faces heightened risks and uncertainty, marked by a severe pandemic, major war, and record heat. Sauli Niinistö, former Finnish President and Special Adviser to the European Commission President, was tasked by President von der Leyen and the HR/VP to assess these challenges and propose ways to boost the
Continue reading Security, Intelligence and the EU in the Report by Sauli Niinistö
https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HAI_AI-Index-Report-2024.pdf
https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2024-08/ASPIs%20two-decade%20Critical%20Technology%20Tracker_1.pdf?VersionId=1p.Rx9MIuZyK5A5w1SDKIpE2EGNB_H8r
The threat quantum computing poses to cryptocurrency is likely overstated for the present but demands attention for the future. A report by Chinese researchers using a D-Wave quantum computer has suggested potential risks to encryption algorithms, such as RSA, commonly used in banking and security systems. However, this device is a quantum annealer rather than
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https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/04/05/Changing-Global-Linkages-A-New-Cold-War-547357 The paper titled Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War? by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea F. Presbitero, and Petia Topalova (April 2024) investigates how recent geopolitical tensions, particularly post-Ukraine invasion, are reshaping global trade and investment patterns. The authors observe a shift toward “geoeconomic fragmentation,” with trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) increasingly
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The Fourth Annual Report on the Screening of Foreign Direct Investments into the Union (COM(2024) 464 final), released by the European Commission on October 17, 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of the FDI screening mechanism within the European Union during the year 2023. The report reflects on the application of the EU Foreign Direct Investment
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THE TELEGRAM CASE BEFORE THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS I just published an article on La Comunità Internazionale, 2024, n. 3, examining the landmark decision of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in the case of Podchasov v Russia, which centred on the Russian government’s attempts to force the messaging app Telegram to
Continue reading ENCRYPTION BACKDOORS ON TRIAL
Correlation vs. Causation Understanding the difference between correlation and causation is fundamental for sound data analysis and decision-making. Establishing true causal relationships requires careful research design and appropriate methodologies. Understanding the difference between correlation and causation is fundamental for sound data analysis and decision-making. Establishing true causal relationships requires careful research design and appropriate methodologies.
The Council has introduced a new framework for restrictive measures in response to Russia’s destabilizing activities abroad. This framework allows the EU to impose sanctions on individuals and entities involved in actions or policies by the Russian government that threaten the security, independence, and integrity of the EU, its member states, international organizations, and third
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Understanding Market Manipulation Through Simulation This video explores a type of market manipulation based on trading patterns—subtle, often legal-looking strategies that don’t involve outright lies but still distort market signals. A historical example is the 2013 FOREX Case, in which traders manipulated currency rates and extracted hundreds of millions from what was assumed to be an
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https://www.congress.gov/118/bills/hr815/BILLS-118hr815enr.pdf On 24 April 2024, President Biden signed into law a comprehensive legislative package that included PAFACAA. This followed approval by the House of Representatives on 14 March 2024. PAFACAA addresses long-standing concerns about TikTok’s potential threats to US national security due to its Chinese ownership and data collection practices. The law compels ByteDance, TikTok’s
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Ivo Daalder, interviewed by Ian Bremmer, extensively discussed Russia’s perception of security, asserting that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not destined to end with a simple negotiation or peace treaty. According to Daalder, the conflict will persist as long as Russia continues to believe that its security fundamentally depends on the insecurity of
Continue reading The Enduring Conflict: Russia’s Perception of Security and the Insecurity of its Neighbors
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2335 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/05/13/order-regarding-the-acquisition-of-certain-real-property-of-cheyenne-leads-by-mineone-cloud-computing-investment-i-l-p The Biden administration has issued its first veto under the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) powers. This marks the eighth presidential veto in nearly half a century of CFIUS history, with seven of these related to national security concerns involving Chinese investors. This decision reflects heightened vigilance by Western
Continue reading Biden Administration issues first CFIUS Veto prohibiting the acquisition by a Chinese owned cryptocurrency company of a real estate, and the operation of a cryptocurrency mining facility, in close proximity to ICBM base