The art of thinking ahead

The art of thinking ahead

The article A Better Crystal Ball. The Right Way to Think About the Future by J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock published on October 13, 2020 by Foreign Affairs proposes a reflection on how policymakers can improve their ability to anticipate and manage future crises, overcoming the limitations of traditional and often ineffective approaches. Here is
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The blackmail of the veto: when EU decision-making is traded for EU resources

The problem of the veto in the European Union’s foreign and security policy is not a technical inconvenience, nor a mere procedural anomaly, but a structural and constitutional dilemma that goes to the heart of the Union’s capacity to act. What was originally conceived as a protective safeguard, intended to ensure that no Member State would be forced into decisions touching
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Disinformation as modern statecraft: how democracies can Resist the politics of doubt

The report by Professor Rory Cormac and Dr Dan Lomas (Evidence to the Foreign Affairs Committee, February 2025) argues that disinformation has become a central tool of modern statecraft aimed less at persuading audiences of a coherent alternative worldview and more at corroding trust, amplifying doubt, and paralysing democratic decision-making.  The authors frame disinformation as
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Strengthening Europe’s FDI screening: why the new political agreement matters

The European Union has taken a significant step toward a more coherent and security-focused approach to foreign direct investment. The Council presidency and the European Parliament have reached a provisional political agreement to revise the EU’s FDI screening regulation, updating the framework first introduced in 2020. The goal is simple but strategically crucial: to identify, assess and mitigate
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On deterrence

Deterrence is a concept that refers to the ability to prevent an action through the threat of negative consequences. This mechanism appears in several contexts, including international politics, psychology, economics, and social behavior, to influence the choices of individuals or groups. The main goal of deterrence is to encourage a different decision from the one that might be taken in the
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Generative AI is not just about technology

Generative AI is not only a new tool in the digital toolbox. Generative AI is a turning point in how societies think, create, and organise knowledge. This technology opens an extraordinary opportunity to amplify human potential, to free time and attention for higher-order thinking, and to explore creative territories that were previously out of reach
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Security before competitiveness: why the EU’s strategic autonomy agenda has entered a new phase

The European Union’s economic debate has been dominated for years by concerns over productivity gaps, the incomplete Single Market, and the pace of innovation. Yet a new hierarchy of priorities is emerging. According to the European Parliament’s recent study Strategic Autonomy and European Competitiveness: Security Now Comes First (EGOV, European Parliament, December 2025), the EU can no
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The EU prepares a Cloud and AI Development Act: strengthening digital sovereignty

According to a recent briefing from the European Parliamentary Research Service, the European Commission is preparing a major new legislative initiative: the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA). This upcoming act is expected to become a central pillar of the EU’s broader strategy to strengthen its technological sovereignty and close the growing gap with other global
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The Architecture of American Strategy: a tight comparative snapshot

U.S. national security planning rests on a layered ecosystem of strategic documents. Each plays a distinct role, yet all interact to guide decisions on defense, diplomacy, intelligence, and technological power. The structure resembles a cascading hierarchy: the White House defines the overarching worldview; the Pentagon translates it into military posture; and specialized reviews refine doctrine
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The EU’s €120 Million DSA fine against X isn’t about censorship it’s about deceptive design and transparency

The European Commission’s €120 million fine against X on December 5, 2025 is best read as a design-and-transparency case, not as a content-removal or “censorship” crusade. The Commission framed this as the first non-compliance decision under the Digital Services Act (DSA) and grounded it in three technical breaches: a deceptive “blue checkmark” architecture, an inadequate ads repository, and obstacles
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The Trump Administration’s statements and their implications for European defense

Recent statements by the Trump administration on NATO and collective defense function less as a direct assault on Europe and more as a strategic “wake-up call” exposing the continent’s deep unpreparedness and structural vulnerabilities. These remarks can be interpreted in two ways: as an expression of outright hostility toward a Europe viewed as a rival,
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America’s New Security Strategy and its impact on Europe

America’s New Security Strategy and its impact on Europe

Europe is no longer a comforting footnote in Washington’s strategic imagination. Europe is a test case, a market, a burden to be rebalanced and , at times, a civilization to be “rescued” from its own regulatory and political instincts. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (November 2025) is explicit about this shift, and
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What the EU’s “Strengthening EU Economic Security” really means

The European Union has just released an important new blueprint for safeguarding its economic future. The document, Strengthening EU Economic Security, marks a decisive shift in how Brussels thinks about global competition, geopolitical pressure, and the vulnerabilities that come with deep economic interdependence. It builds on the 2023 European Economic Security Strategy but pushes the Union
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Why the ECB rejected the €140 billion “reparations loan” for Ukraine and why it matters

The European Commission proposed to provide a €140 billion loan to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian-state assets held in Europe (mostly with Euroclear). The idea was that those frozen assets, already immobilized since Russia’s 2022 invasion, could serve as collateral, enabling the EU to channel much-needed financial support to Kyiv without forcing EU taxpayers alone
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European Strategic Autonomy: between dependence and long-term emancipation

The war in Ukraine has forced Europe to face a blunt fact: European security still rests heavily on the United States. For decades, the American umbrella allowed European governments to postpone tough decisions on defense. Now, with war on its borders and a harsher geopolitical environment, Europe must ask whether it can act on its
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Conditional backdoors and publicly-traceable decryption how cryptography can reframe the lawful access debate

In the debates that followed Snowden’s revelations, many policymakers embraced a familiar narrative. Strong encryption allegedly creates a “going dark” problem, and the solution should be some form of “good backdoor” that lets authorities access encrypted communications when the law so requires. A recent paper by Francesco Bruschi, Marco Esposito, Andrea Rizzini and Ivan Visconti, Deflating
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Germany’s new National Security Council: A historic turning point in security policy

Germany’s new National Security Council: A historic turning point in security policy

On August 27, 2025, Germany marked a historic date: the Federal Cabinet formally established a National Security Council (NSC), the most significant reform of German security architecture in recent decades. This institutional transformation represents Berlin’s concrete response to an increasingly complex and threatening world. From Bundessicherheitsrat to the new Council To understand the scope of
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When Europe realized openness had a cost: the 2017 letter that changed EU investment policy

When Europe realized openness had a cost: the 2017 letter that changed EU investment policy

In early 2017, three of Europe’s most powerful economic ministers — Brigitte Zypries from Germany, Michel Sapinfrom France, and Carlo Calenda from Italy signed a letter that quietly reshaped the European Union’s approach to global investment. Their message, addressed to Cecilia Malmström, then European Commissioner for Trade, was brief but momentous. It called on Brussels to act — to protect Europe’s technological future
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From seizure to stalemate: What the Dutch “climb-down” on Nexperia really tells us

On November 19, 2025, the Dutch government decided to suspend its emergency control over Nexperia, stepping back from the company seizure it had ordered on September 30. The decision was framed as a gesture of de-escalation following “constructive talks” with China and the gradual easing of Chinese export controls on Nexperia’s chips. However, this suspension
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The AI Index 2025: 12 Numbers That Explain Where AI Is Going

The AI Index 2025: 12 Numbers That Explain Where AI Is Going

Every year, Stanford’s AI Index tries to answer a simple but unsettling question: what is actually happening with AI? The 2025 edition is the most data-rich so far, and the picture it paints is both impressive and uncomfortable. Below are the key trends, translated into digestible numbers. 1. AI research is exploding – and it’s mostly about AI now
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The France National Intelligence Strategy 2025

The France National Intelligence Strategy 2025

The France National Intelligence Strategy 2025 presents a structured overview of how the French government defines, organizes, and prioritizes its intelligence activities in light of evolving global threats and strategic transformations. The document represents both a doctrinal framework and a political declaration, articulating the principles that guide intelligence work and its integration into national decision-making. Below is an analytical summary
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Why Neoliberalism is turning our universities into “anxiety machines” (drawing on Peter Fleming’s dark academia).

Dark academia: The corporate university Is dying Peter Fleming’s book, Dark Academia: How Universities Die, offers a devastating exposé of the assault waged by neoliberalism on higher education, transforming universities from a crucial public good into an “adjunct of sordid market forces”. The argument posits that modern universities were already “gravely ill” long before the Covid-19 pandemic.
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When diplomacy meets journalism: the quiet struggle over narrative control

Modern diplomacy no longer lives exclusively in the realm of treaties, communiqués, or quiet negotiations behind closed doors. It unfolds in the open spaces of public discourse, where states fight for attention, legitimacy, and narrative dominance. In this environment, the interview has become a battleground as much as a bridge: a space of encounter that
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A Long-Form Analysis of the” Documento Programmatico Pluriennale 2025?2027 (DPP)” of the Ministero della Difesa of Italy Objectives, Priorities, and Strategic Threads

Overview The Documento Programmatico Pluriennale 2025?2027 (DPP) of the Ministero della Difesa of Italy presents a multiyear programme that goes beyond mere budgetary forecast or procurement plan: it signals a broad strategic posture for Italy’s defence and security apparatus. The document appears to pivot on a set of conceptual shifts: heightened awareness of persistent instability,
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Europe’s intelligence ambitions: Von der Leyen’s new unit and the quest for strategic autonomy

The Financial Times recently reported that the European Commission has begun setting up a new intelligence coordination unit under President Ursula von der Leyen, in what could become one of the most politically sensitive moves of her second term. The new body—hosted within the Commission’s Secretariat-General—aims to improve how Brussels gathers and uses intelligence collected by national spy agencies (“The European
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In the scenario of a “significant increase” in unemployment due to AI, it is not enough to tweak a couple of training courses and a few tax incentives.

There is a need for policies that redefine the social covenant, and they are needed at multiple levels: national and international. Some concrete ideas. 1. Understand the type of shock: it is not only that “jobs are missing”, but that tasks are changing Recent economic research shows that AI tends to: Evidence from the ILO
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How Russia learned from failure

How Russia learned from failure When Russian troops crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, many expected a swift victory—a demonstration of Moscow’s power and a humiliation for Kyiv. Within weeks, that illusion collapsed. The invasion turned into a series of humiliations for the Kremlin: broken logistics, mass desertions, and a military doctrine unprepared for modern,
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Japan Funds TSMC’s U.S. Semiconductor Expansion

Japan is now pledging that part of its US bound $550 billion trade investment package could help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker, most likely TSMC, to build fabs in America. Why Japan is doing this • Hedging geopolitical risk With TSMC’s fabs concentrated in Taiwan and China’s increasing coercion in the Taiwan Strait, the US wants TSMC onshore. Japan wants
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Understanding BlackRock’s geopolitical risk dashboard: how markets perceive power and uncertainty

Understanding BlackRock’s geopolitical risk dashboard: how markets perceive power and uncertainty

BlackRock’s Geopolitical Risk Dashboard is not just another data visualization. It is an attempt to quantify something that seems, by nature, unquantifiable — the market’s perception of geopolitical tension. Developed by the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), the dashboard translates the vast and often chaotic landscape of political risk into a set of measurable indicators, revealing how investors react
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Workshop “Strategic Litigation in International Law: Concepts, Actors, and Impact” – 27–28 November 2025 – Faculty of Law, University of Trento

In the increasingly complex landscape of international law, strategic litigation has emerged as both a tool for individual justice and a catalyst for systemic change. The workshop “Strategic Litigation in International Law”, hosted by the University of Trento’s Faculty of Law on 27–28 November 2025, offers a unique opportunity to explore this practice through three central dimensions: concepts,
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Palliora: a decentralized framework for confidential computation and AI

Palliora: a decentralized framework for confidential computation and AI

Palliora is a decentralized platform for sharing intelligent thoughts and is designed to allow users to selectively share their data for trusted, confidential, and verifiable computation. Its primary purpose is to provide security and privacy guarantees, ensuring that only the intended recipients will have access to the data, which is essential for fostering growth in the knowledge economy and the
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Seventeen years since the bitcoin whitepaper: the day trust went decentralized

Seventeen years since the bitcoin whitepaper: the day trust went decentralized

Seventeen years ago today, on November 1, 2008, an anonymous figure using the name Satoshi Nakamoto shared a nine-page document with a small cryptography mailing list. Its title was simple — “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” Yet within those pages lay the seed of a transformation that would ripple across technology, economics, and political thought. The paper’s premise was
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Can international law really depend on just one state – the United States – or on a small triangle of great powers like the US, Russia and China?

The question sounds provocative, but it cuts straight into a real tension: international law presents itself as the law of a community of states, yet the system clearly bends around a handful of powerful players. If international law simply mirrored what those powers want, it would stop looking like law and start looking like a diplomatic
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TSMC in Arizona: geopolitics, technology and the future of semiconductors

TSMC in Arizona: geopolitics, technology and the future of semiconductors

A significant transformation is occurring in chip manufacturing, shifting control over the global economy. The United States, which invented the semiconductor industry and still leads in design, equipment, and software, saw its manufacturing dominance decline from 40% in 1990 to about 10% today. To address this, TSMC is building an advanced chip factory, Fab 21,
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The new space era: rethinking global governance beyond earth

The new space era: rethinking global governance beyond earth

On November 7, 2025, I’ll take part in the conference “The New Space Era: A Multidisciplinary Governance for the Future of Public Policies”, hosted by Luiss University’s Research Center for International and Strategic Studies (CISS) at the Aula Toti, Luiss Campus (Viale Romania 32, Rome). From 8:30 a.m. to 12:45 p.m., leading voices from academia, industry, and government will explore
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Federated Learning: the quiet revolution in machine intelligence

In the traditional world of machine learning, data has always been the raw fuel. Corporations, research organisations and governments collect it, centralise it and feed it into models that learn to recognise patterns, predict outcomes and make decisions. But what if the data could stay where it is—on your phone, in a hospital, on a
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IP address geolocation: mechanisms, applications, and limitations

1.0 Introduction: the business and regulatory imperative for geolocation The enforcement of region-specific regulations and content policies is a primary operational challenge for global online services. These services must reliably determine a user’s geographical location to tailor content and ensure compliance, but must do so without resorting to intrusive methods like GPS or Wi-Fi scanning,
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The official statement from Nexperia China, dated October 23rd, 2025, addressing a dispute between Nexperia Netherlands (the Dutch headquarters) and Nexperia China Ltd.

The official statement from Nexperia China, dated October 23rd, 2025, addressing a dispute between Nexperia Netherlands (the Dutch headquarters) and Nexperia China Ltd.

This is an official statement from Nexperia China, dated October 23rd, 2025, addressing a dispute between Nexperia Netherlands (the Dutch headquarters) and Nexperia China Ltd. The Dutch headquarters reportedly dismissed John Chang, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing.Nexperia China rejects that decision, declaring it legally invalid in China and asserting its own managerial independence. 1. The Dutch decision has no legal effect in
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Safeguarding maritime graves in the Baltic sea: legal challenges and state duties regarding the MS Estonia wreck under international law

1. Context and relevance The ferry MS Estonia sank on 28 September 1994 in the Baltic Sea, with approximately 852 casualties.  The States of Estonia, Finland and Sweden signed on 23 February 1995 the “Agreement regarding the MS Estonia” which designates the wreck as a “final place of rest” and prohibits diving or salvage activities that
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The adoption of the EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia, significantly intensifying pressure on its war economy. 

On 23 October 2025, the European Commission announced the adoption of the EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia, significantly intensifying pressure on its war economy. European Commission Key measures include: This package marks a major escalation in the EU’s sanctions regime, expanding the scope far beyond previous energy and finance-measures, and aiming to close existing loopholes and tighten
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The Semicon coalition and the legal imperative for a reinforced EU Chips Act

The Declaration of the Semicon Coalition marks a decisive moment in Europe’s ongoing effort to consolidate technological sovereignty within the global semiconductor ecosystem. Signed in Brussels on 29 September 2025 by ministers from twenty-seven Member States, the document calls for a “revised and forward-looking EU Chips Act”—a legal and strategic recalibration of the Union’s approach to a sector
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