Why has JPMorgan Chase opened a Center for Geopolitics? Because in 2025, geopolitical risk is not a background noise — it’s the main storyline. Jamie Dimon doesn’t mince words: “Our greatest risk is geopolitical risk.” From trade wars to global rearmament, from U.S.–China friction to Middle East realignments, the world is shifting — and markets aren’t
Continue reading JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, our greatest risk is geopolitical risk
On 22 May 2025, the United Kingdom and Mauritius signed a landmark agreement regarding the Chagos Archipelago. This agreement represents a significant shift in colonial legacies and carries profound implications for international law and strategic military interests in the Indian Ocean. Historical Context: The Chagos Archipelago Dispute The Chagos Archipelago, a group of over 60
Continue reading The Chagos Archipelago, Diego Garcia and Geopolitics:
Montréal, 12 May 2025 – The Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) today voted that the Russian Federation failed to uphold its obligations under international air law in the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17. This represents the first time in ICAO’s history that its Council has made a determination on the merits
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Carlo M. Cipolla, an Italian economic historian, introduced a compelling framework in his essay “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity” to categorise human behaviour based on the impact of one’s actions on oneself and others. This framework is often visualised as a Cartesian plane that divides individuals into four distinct categories: 1. Intelligent (upper right
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The National Security Agency (NSA) has declassified and released a trove of historical documents detailing the origins and evolution of the UKUSA Agreement, the foundational treaty underpinning the intelligence-sharing alliance known as the “Five Eyes.” This release offers an unprecedented glimpse into the clandestine collaboration between the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New
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When a political leader or head of state normalizes borderline behaviours—those that challenge or circumvent ethical, legal, or institutional norms—there is a significant risk of long-lasting and profound effects on future generations. The legitimization of such behaviours by individuals in positions of power can initiate a process of collective desensitization. Actions once deemed unacceptable may
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On May 2, 2025, Ireland’s Data Protection Commission (DPC) imposed a €530 million fine on TikTok for breaching the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The DPC fined TikTok after concluding that the company violated the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in two key ways: by unlawfully transferring personal data of European Economic Area
Continue reading Ireland’s Data Protection Commission (DPC) imposed substantial fine of €530 million on TikTok for violating the GDPR by unlawfully transferring European users’ personal data to China
On May 2, 2025, Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, BfV), the domestic intelligence agency, officially designated the entire political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a confirmed far-right extremist organization. This unprecedented classification follows a three-year investigation and a comprehensive 1,100-page report. It grants the BfV expanded surveillance powers over the party, including wiretapping and the
Continue reading German domestic intelligence agency officially designated the entire political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a confirmed far-right extremist organization.
Kenneth Rogoff’s latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead, published by Yale University Press in April 2025, offers a sweeping, incisive examination of the historic rise of the US dollar and its increasingly precarious future. Drawing on his experience as a former
Continue reading Comparative advantage and the dollar’s dominance: unpacking economic misconceptions
Court of Justice of the European Union 30 April 2025 Case C-246/24 | Generalstaatsanwaltschaft Frankfurt am Main (Export of cash to Russia) The Court of Justice of the European Union has ruled that the EU’s restrictive measures—which prohibit the export of euro banknotes or those denominated in the currency of a Member State to Russia—also apply when the cash is
Continue reading No Euro cash for medical treatment in Russia under EU sanctions
The Court of Justice ruled that Malta’s 2020 investor citizenship scheme, which granted nationality in exchange for predetermined payments or investments without requiring a genuine link to Malta, violates EU law. While Member States retain competence over nationality matters, they must exercise it consistently with EU principles. Union citizenship is based on solidarity, good faith,
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Canada asserts that the Northwest Passage constitutes its internal waters, based on historical usage and the occupation by Indigenous peoples, particularly the Inuit. This claim is reinforced by the 1985 establishment of straight baselines around the Arctic Archipelago, effectively enclosing the passage within Canadian territory. Canada’s stance allows it to regulate all activities within the
Continue reading The dispute between Canada and the United States over the Northwest Passage centers on the legal status of this Arctic sea route.
The proposal to establish a National Security Council (Nationaler Sicherheitsrat) in Germany is a central element of the coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and SPD, presented on April 9, 2025. This initiative aims to transform the existing Federal Security Council (Bundessicherheitsrat) into a more comprehensive body within the Federal Chancellery (Bundeskanzleramt), which currently focuses primarily on approving arms exports, into a
Continue reading A proposal of a National Security Council in Germany
In the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s ousting in December 2024, both the European Union and the United Kingdom have introduced substantial modifications to their sanctions frameworks on Syria. These revisions are intended to foster the country’s reconstruction and political transition while preserving strategic leverage to sustain reform momentum. European Union: strategic easing of restrictions On
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On April 23, 2025, the European Commission imposed the first fines under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) against Apple and Meta, marking a significant escalation in the EU’s enforcement of digital competition rules. The Digital Markets Act (DMA) The Digital Markets Act (DMA) is a landmark piece of legislation adopted by the European Union with the aim of reining in the overwhelming power
Continue reading First DMA fines hit Apple and Meta over user rights and market rules
Recent use: the SAFE initiative The European Parliament’s Legal Affairs Committee (JURI) has expressed opposition to the European Commission’s use of Article 122(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) as the legal basis for the “ReArm Europe” initiative (The Commission’s 19 March 2025 proposal to create the Security Action for
Continue reading The Legal Boundaries of EU Defence Policy: JURI Committee Challenges Commission’s Approach – Art. 122 – Democratic concerns and parliamentary scrutiny
In his article “Why Europe Must Avoid a Strategic Trap in a Post-American World”, Alexander Clarkson warns that the decline of US power could follow a similar path to the fall of the Roman Empire. He compares today’s tensions in US-European relations to the struggle of the Eastern Roman Empire after the collapse of the Western Empire.
Continue reading Avoiding the strategic trap: what Europe can learn from the fall of Rome
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has embarked on a significant expansion in the United States, particularly in Arizona, to strengthen its advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and establish a strategic presence in the U.S. technology sector. TSMC has announced a total investment of US$165 billion in the United States, a significant portion of which is earmarked
Continue reading TSMC in Arizona: geopolitics, technology and the future of semiconductors
The paradox of a strong dollar: the dollar lies at the center of the international monetary system. This grants the United States what was already described in the 1960s as an “exorbitant privilege” (B. Eichengreen): the ability to issue debt in a currency that the rest of the world wants to hold. However, this privilege has a
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In The Age of Forever Wars: Why Military Strategy No Longer Delivers Victory (Published on Foreign Affairs, April 14, 2025), Lawrence D. Freedman offers a sobering critique of contemporary military strategy, revealing its dangerous reliance on outdated assumptions about the nature and duration of modern warfare. Central to his argument is the persistent “short war fallacy”—the
Continue reading The strategic illusion of quick victory
According to the Infranomics video analysis, it is difficult to determine with certainty who is selling U.S. Treasury securities. However, the author explores the possibility that China, Europe, and Japan are involved in such sales. His reasoning is based on an observed divergence between interest rate differentials and the strength of local currenciesduring the period in which the yield on the 10-year
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Certainly, here is an overview of the growth of the U.S. national debt over the past 20 years, based on official data from the U.S. Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO): U.S. National Debt: 2005–2025 Year Total Federal Debt (USD Trillions) Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%) 2005 7.9 61.7 2008 10.0 67.7 2010 13.6 91.0 2015
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The article A Better Crystal Ball. The Right Way to Think About the Future by J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock published on October 13, 2020 by Foreign Affairs proposes a reflection on how policymakers can improve their ability to anticipate and manage future crises, overcoming the limitations of traditional and often ineffective approaches. Here is
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On July 12, 2023, the U.S. Congress introduced and advanced a bipartisan resolution—S.J. Res. 37—designed to prevent the President from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO). According to the text of the resolution, the President may not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the U.S. from NATO without either the advice and
Continue reading U.S. legislation restricts Presidential authority to withdraw from NATO
In his latest piece, Noah Smith sounds the alarm: the U.S. may be experiencing capital flight — something usually seen in fragile economies. Investors are dumping U.S. bonds, selling dollars, and moving their money abroad. This is not normal. Bond yields are rising, but the dollar is falling and that’s not just a curious market quirk. It’s a rare and deeply
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Technical regulations as strategic tools In this piece, I build upon Andrea Fracasso’s insight, where he observes that “Some are suggesting a review of green economy regulations in the EU because of their impact on production costs. While it is necessary to consider the relevance of this phenomenon, it should be remembered that European technical
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In today’s tech-driven economy, success is increasingly measured by a company’s ability to craft compelling narratives that attract high valuations and continuous venture capital funding, rather than traditional metrics like profitability or dividends. Many leading U.S. companies have operated at a loss for years, relying on investments to dominate markets and outcompete rivals. A significant
Continue reading On subsidies and on competition: what is a good company in 2025 ?
Bismuth is becoming increasingly important in the microelectronics sector, valued for its unique electrical, thermal, and environmental properties. What many don’t realize is that this metal is not typically mined on its own. Instead, it is recovered as a by-product of refining other metals—primarily lead, copper, tin, tungsten, molybdenum, and zinc. Silicon, the cornerstone of modern computing,
Continue reading Bismuth (bismuth oxyselenide Bi2O2Se) and microelectronics: a strategic material with quiet origins
CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks The speech offers a forceful and revisionist interpretation of the United States’ global role, centered on the claim that America has long shouldered the burden of maintaining both international security and the financial infrastructure of the global economy—essentially providing the world with what economists call “global public
Continue reading A forceful and revisionist interpretation of the United States’ global role: a doctrine of burden sharing
According to A. Castagnoli (La guerra fredda economica, Italia e Stati Uniti 1947-1989, Laterza, 2015) between 1947 and 1989, the United States deployed a broad arsenal of economic pressure tools—from conditional aid and trade barriers to embargoes, technology controls, and sanctions. These instruments served not only economic objectives but also the broader geopolitical strategy of
Continue reading A. Castagnoli, La guerra fredda economica. Italia e Stati Uniti 1947-1989 (The economic cold war. Italy and the United States 1947-1989), Laterza, Roma-Bari, 2015
The Trump administration has announced a major overhaul of the federal government’s approach to artificial intelligence, marking a decisive shift from the cautious approach of the previous administration. With two new directives – M-25-21 and M-25-22 – the White House is promoting an innovation-focused strategy aimed at strengthening US global leadership in AI and modernising
Continue reading USA and AI: Eliminating Barriers for Federal Artificial Intelligence Use and Procurement
General Framework On 20 January 2025, President Trump signed the America First Trade Policy memorandum, setting out a protectionist vision centered on tariffs as the primary trade tool. Key directives include: Tariffs and Key Measures Several waves of tariffs were quickly imposed: Legal Justification and Controversy The White House invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA, 1977) to justify these tariffs,
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Global supply chains today are shaped by tariffs, labor costs, geopolitical risks, and logistical complexity. While tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, consumers often bear the brunt. High U.S. production costs, especially in labor-intensive sectors, hinder competitiveness compared to countries like China and Mexico. The U.S. remains strong in low-labor, high-tech industries like jet engines, but mass manufacturing (e.g., smartphones) still favors offshoring. Supply chains for goods like toilet
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Paul Krugman has strongly criticised the Trump administration’s tariff plans, highlighting their serious and in some cases paradoxical economic implications. First, he stresses that the proposed tariffs are significantly higher than those imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, and points out that the US economy is now three times more open to international trade
Continue reading Paul Krugman and the Trump administration’s tariff plans.
Donald Trump’s tariff policy is not an isolated or improvised move. According to his advisors, it marks the first stage of a broader strategy to reshape the global economic order, aiming to reverse American deindustrialization and reassert the United States as a manufacturing power. Trump’s approach starts with what has been labeled tariff chaos —
Continue reading Understanding Trump’s tariff strategy: context, history, rationale, and goals
Here is a clear and structured English reformulation of the topic you outlined, emphasizing the centrality of public debt in today’s financial landscape: Public debt has become a defining feature of the global economic landscape, increasingly viewed not just as a policy tool, but as a structural dependency. Around the world, governments appear “addicted” to
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The tariffs imposed by the White House on the rest of the world are a shock of historic proportions. This, and the lack of clarity about the reasons behind them, has made the situation difficult to interpret. There are many bold statements and many unanswered questions. In this article, I will try to address the
Continue reading Is this the end of international trade? Everything you always wanted to know about US tariffs (but were afraid to ask) by Andrea Fracasso
The paper explores the dynamics of economic coercion and fragmentation within the international economic system, highlighting how major powers, particularly the United States and China, leverage their economic dominance over smaller nations by exploiting dependencies on essential resources, technology, or global financial services. According to Clayton, Maggiori, and Schreger, traditional benefits of globalization—such as specialization and
Continue reading Chris Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger – A theory of economic coercion and fragmentation