In essence, this method of calculation is profoundly misleading: It is not, as is claimed, an analysis of the actual customs tariffs (nor of the non-tariff barriers), but rather a crude arithmetical operation with no economic sense whatsoever. The reported procedure is as follows: The United States’ bilateral trade deficit with country X is divided
Continue reading US Tariffs: the political use of misleading numbers

Historical Context During the Cold War, the United States sought to gain strategic intelligence on Soviet military capabilities, particularly regarding submarine and missile technologies. In the early 1970s, U.S. intelligence agencies discovered the existence of an undersea communications cable in the Sea of Okhotsk, connecting the Soviet Pacific Fleet’s base at Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka
Continue reading Sigint: Operation Ivy Bells – Sea of Okhotsk, 1971–1981

Historical Context In October 1962, the United States discovered Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles being installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from its shores. This revelation triggered the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tense 13-day standoff between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. To monitor the missile installations, the U.S. conducted high-altitude reconnaissance missions using Lockheed U-2
Continue reading Sigint: The 1962 U-2 Shootdown over Cuba – October 27, 1962

Historical context: During the Cold War, the United States conducted regular signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations using both aircraft and naval vessels to monitor the electronic communications of rival states. These missions were crucial to national security strategy and often took place in close proximity to the territorial waters of adversaries such as the Soviet Union,
Continue reading Sigint: The USS Pueblo Incident – Sea of Japan, January 23, 1968

Historical context: During the Cold War, electronic intelligence (SIGINT) missions were a vital part of U.S. strategic operations. American aircraft routinely patrolled the peripheries of Soviet, Chinese, and North Korean airspace, collecting communications and radar data. These were unarmed reconnaissance flights, operating in what the U.S. classified as international airspace, but always within geopolitical hot
Continue reading Sigint: The EC-121 Incident – Sea of Japan, April 15, 1969

Executive Order 14255 of March 31, 2025 creates a new initiative—the United States Investment Accelerator—to streamline and support major investments in the U.S. economy, particularly those over $1 billion. The order asserts that current U.S. regulatory systems are overly complex and burdensome, slowing down investment, construction, and economic growth. It aims to remove unnecessary regulatory barriers, improve coordination across
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Selective attention is a crucial cognitive function that allows the human brain to focus on specific stimuli and filter out background noise, be it visual, auditory or conceptual. In other words, it’s as if the mind has a spotlight: it illuminates one aspect of the sensory experience while leaving the rest in semi-darkness. Imagine listening
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“Grace Hopper and the Invention of the Information Age, by Kurt W. Beyer, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2012, explores the life and work of Grace Hopper and her significant contributions to the early development of computing and the subsequent emergence of the Information Age. The book delves into Hopper’s experiences, beginning with her time at the
Continue reading Grace Hopper and the Invention of the Information Age, by Kurt W. Beyer

The digital euro is a proposal by the European Commission, currently at an advanced stage of legislative development, aiming to introduce a new form of central bank money in digital format, directly accessible to the public — meaning citizens and businesses — for retail payments. It is neither a private cryptocurrency nor a mere electronic payment tool, but
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has introduced the “ReArm Europe” initiative, aiming to enhance the European Union’s defense capabilities in response to escalating security threats. The plan proposes mobilizing up to €800 billion for defense investments, focusing on both immediate support for Ukraine and long-term reinforcement of Europe’s security infrastructure. The initiative comprises
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an IMF blog post https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/09/12/trade-balances-in-china-and-the-us-are-largely-driven-by-domestic-macro-forces The document argues that the trade balance (the difference between exports and imports) of China and the United States is primarily driven by domestic macroeconomic factors rather than industrial policies aimed at boosting exports. Why Has China’s Trade Surplus Increased and the US Deficit Grown? • In China, weak domestic demand—caused
Continue reading IMF Blog on Trade Balances in China and the US

Establishing a U.S. sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is a concept that has garnered both interest and skepticism. While it presents opportunities for strategic investment and economic resilience, it also poses significant challenges given the United States’ fiscal landscape and political environment.  The Executive Order 14196 of February 3, 2025 directs the Secretary of the Treasury
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The decisive turning point that fundamentally transformed the system of campaign finance in the United States did not occur through congressional legislation, but rather through a ruling of the Supreme Court: Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, issued in 2010. In this landmark decision, the Court held that restrictions on independent expenditures by legal entities—such as
Continue reading The turning point that transformed the system of campaign finance in the United States

The European Commission has issued a Recommendation (EU) 2025/63 of 15 January 2025 (on reviewing outbound investments in technology areas critical for the economic security of the Union) urging EU Member States to review outbound investments by their companies in non-EU countries, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies—three strategic sectors posing the highest risks to economic security. The
Continue reading Recommendation calling on EU Member States to review outbound investments 

The Council Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/3188 of 16 December 2024, enforcing Regulation (EU) 2024/2642, introduces targeted restrictive measures against individuals and entities involved in destabilizing activities attributed to the Russian Federation. A significant portion of these measures addresses actions specifically related to Africa. The sanctions reveal a distinct African dimension, structured around two key axes: Disinformation and information manipulation
Continue reading Sanctions on Hybrid Operations in Africa

Judgment of the General Court in Case T-526/19 RENV | Nord Stream 2 v Parliament and Council

A quite interesting paper by RAND: Blinders, Blunders and Wars The document points out that strategic blunders — serious missteps with unintended negative consequences — often stem from leaders relying on oversimplified or flawed mental models to navigate complex decisions. These distorted models, far removed from objective reality, lead decision-makers to dismiss or misconstrue critical
Continue reading A quite interesting paper by RAND: Strategic blunders — serious missteps with unintended negative consequences — often stem from leaders relying on oversimplified or flawed mental models to navigate complex decisions

Strengthening Europe’s preparedness is urgent as it faces heightened risks and uncertainty, marked by a severe pandemic, major war, and record heat. Sauli Niinistö, former Finnish President and Special Adviser to the European Commission President, was tasked by President von der Leyen and the HR/VP to assess these challenges and propose ways to boost the
Continue reading Security, Intelligence and the EU in the Report by Sauli Niinistö

https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HAI_AI-Index-Report-2024.pdf

https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2024-08/ASPIs%20two-decade%20Critical%20Technology%20Tracker_1.pdf?VersionId=1p.Rx9MIuZyK5A5w1SDKIpE2EGNB_H8r

The threat quantum computing poses to cryptocurrency is likely overstated for the present but demands attention for the future. A report by Chinese researchers using a D-Wave quantum computer has suggested potential risks to encryption algorithms, such as RSA, commonly used in banking and security systems. However, this device is a quantum annealer rather than
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The Fourth Annual Report on the Screening of Foreign Direct Investments into the Union (COM(2024) 464 final), released by the European Commission on October 17, 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of the FDI screening mechanism within the European Union during the year 2023. The report reflects on the application of the EU Foreign Direct Investment
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THE TELEGRAM CASE BEFORE THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS I just published an article on La Comunità Internazionale, 2024, n. 3, examining the landmark decision of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in the case of Podchasov v Russia, which centred on the Russian government’s attempts to force the messaging app Telegram to
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Correlation vs. Causation Understanding the difference between correlation and causation is fundamental for sound data analysis and decision-making. Establishing true causal relationships requires careful research design and appropriate methodologies. Understanding the difference between correlation and causation is fundamental for sound data analysis and decision-making. Establishing true causal relationships requires careful research design and appropriate methodologies.

The Council has introduced a new framework for restrictive measures in response to Russia’s destabilizing activities abroad. This framework allows the EU to impose sanctions on individuals and entities involved in actions or policies by the Russian government that threaten the security, independence, and integrity of the EU, its member states, international organizations, and third
Continue reading New Framework for Restrictive Measures on Hybrid Threats