The Revival of Geopolitical Bloc
Monica Duffy Toft’s article “The Return of Spheres of Influence: Will Negotiations Over Ukraine Be a New Yalta Conference?” from Foreign Affairs (March 2025) begins by charting a historical arc: after the Cold War, the ascendancy of globalization, multilateral institutions, and liberal norms appeared to render traditional power blocs obsolete. Yet, as the author observes, “larger countries are again using their advantages…to secure spheres of influence” . This marks a stark reversion to nineteenth-century geopolitical logic, recalling the great redrawing at Yalta in 1945.
Power over Ideology
Unlike the ideological axis of the Cold War, today’s competitive world is driven by hard power—and nationalist narratives. Leaders such as Putin, Xi, and Trump draw on a collective sense of national humiliation, promising redemption through restored prestige—manifested in territorial dominion or economic supremacy . The article underscores this dynamic: “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” .
Regional Realignments
Toft identifies three heavyweight contenders—Russia, China, and the U.S.—all staking claims over their respective orbital zones: the post-Soviet space, Asia-Pacific, and the broader global order . Smaller powers—India, Iran, the EU—remain influential but are pressured to adjust to these emergent power blocs.
Ukraine as the New Yalta?
At the heart of the article is a powerful question: will peace negotiations over Ukraine echo Yalta—a tacit agreement among great powers to carve spheres of influence? Toft suggests that even informal accords among Putin, Xi, and Trump could yield a de facto carving up of nations—mirroring the essence of Yalta without formal treaties .
Complex Challenges to Spheres
However, carving spheres today is more convoluted than it was in 1945. Globalized supply chains, distributed resources (e.g., Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance), and maritime power dynamics resist neat territorial partitioning . Moreover, informal alignments among great powers may marginalize institutions like NATO and the EU, threatening smaller states caught between these spheres ().
Two Paths Ahead
Toft outlines two divergent futures:
- Resurgent power blocs—where spheres of influence become the primary organizing principle of world order.
- A resilient, rules-based multilateralism—where institutions, alliances, and global interdependence push back against naked power politics ().
The Role of the U.S. as Stabilizer
A crucial insight: the United States is “no longer serving as a reliable stabilizer.” By mimicking sphere-claiming behavior—threatening neighbours, withholding support to Ukraine, cozying with authoritarian states—Washington both empowers and models this geopolitical turn .
Toft’s argument is that we are witnessing the reinvigoration of hard-power blocs—reviving a geopolitical paradigm post–Cold War, potentially culminating in carve-ups echoing Yalta. Yet this resurgence is not inevitable: its trajectory depends on whether global institutions, alliances, and economic interdependence can resist this centrifugal trend—rendering this moment pivotal for shaping future international order.