Here a short list of the negative consequences Russia is facing because of its invasion of Ukraine.
- Strengthening of European defense posture Russia’s aggression triggered a surge in military budgets across Europe. In 2024 alone, European defense spending jumped by 17%, reaching $693?billion, with Germany boosting its budget by 28% to $88.5?billion . Berlin even created a €100?billion special defense fund and aims to spend up to 5% of GDP by mid?decade .
- Deepening NATO cohesion and expansion The invasion catalyzed a unity that Russia sought to fracture. As a result, Finland and Sweden abandoned neutrality to join NATO—Sweden especially brings modern armaments and new border proximity . The alliance now hosts more members reaching NATO’s 2% spending threshold, reinforcing collective defense.
- Permanent Western military deployments Germany has stationed a full brigade-sized force (~5,000 troops) in Lithuania—its first long-term foreign deployment since WWII . This solidifies frontline deterrence in Eastern Europe.
- Decline of energy diplomacy and export revenues Europe’s pivot away from Russian gas and oil has hit Moscow’s strategic leverage. By using energy as a weapon—famously via Gazprom and its pipeline politics—Moscow now sees diminished influence as Europe diversifies its supply .
- Comprehensive Western sanctions and economic isolation Stringent sanctions have frozen Russian assets and stifled trade. To counter this, ~€50 billion worth of private assets have been expropriated domestically, and state coffers tapped, signaling deepening financial strain .
- Industrial erosion and military attrition Russia has suffered heavy losses in both equipment and personnel, with battlefield inefficiencies worsening throughout 2024 . Recovery efforts are hampered by Western technology denial and reliance on lower-quality or foreign systems.
- Diplomatic marginalization and geopolitical over-reliance With Europe and much of the West closed off, Moscow depends increasingly on partners like China, Iran, and select Global South states. However, these ties are asymmetrical and brittle ().
- Environmental fallout and reputational damage War-induced ecocide—estimated at $51 billion in environmental damages in Ukraine—has tarnished Russia’s image and potentially contaminated its own land over time .
- Legal responsibility for war crimes The European Court of Human Rights has formally held Russia responsible for grave violations, including the MH17 downing and widespread atrocities—a symbolic but powerful dent in its global standing .
- Acceleration of demographic decline Russia’s demographic crisis—long evident—has worsened due to wartime losses, reduced birth rates, and brain drain, weakening long-term societal resilience.
- A paradigm shift in European strategic autonomy Europe’s leadership—through the “Zeitenwende” moment and policy frameworks like Readiness?2030—is transforming the continent’s self-defense capacity . Russian interference only galvanized this shift.
In essence, Moscow’s gamble to fracture the Euro-Atlantic order has backfired. Instead, it has fortified NATO, militarized Europe, sabotaged its own economy and diplomatic reach, and undermined its future human and industrial capital.