A trajectory links Earth to outer space, and it is not only the one traced by rockets. It is the political, economic, and regulatory path that the European Union is trying to chart while the cosmos becomes ever more crowded, contested, and—above all—relevant to daily life.
Why does space matter to us? Satellite signals now enable roughly 10 % of EU GDP. Orbital traffic is no longer science fiction: by 2023 more than 9 000 active satellites circled Earth, raising collision risks and accelerating the feared Kessler effect. Space has evolved from a scientific laboratory into critical infrastructure that sustains security, telecommunications, navigation, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, and even agriculture.
The EU lags behind. Although it operates world-class systems—Galileo, Copernicus, GOVSATCOM—its technological and financial firepower remains modest next to giants such as the United States and China. In 2023 Washington spent over €66 billion on space; EU institutions and Member States together spent about €12 billion. The gap is not merely numerical; it reflects divergent political vision.
The New Space Race: More Geopolitical Than Galactic
The emerging contest is driven less by exploration than by geopolitics. Russia’s cyber-attack on ViaSat’s KA-SAT network, hours before invading Ukraine, proved that modern warfare already reaches into orbit. Beyond traditional powers, China, India, Japan, the UAE, and South Korea are expanding fleets and ambitions.
Europe has responded. It adopted its first Space Strategy for Security and Defence in 2023, restored autonomous launch capability with Ariane 6 in 2024, and plans a cornerstone regulation for 2025: the EU Space Act.
A Space Act to Impose Order and Industrial Policy
Today at least 13 Member States run separate space laws, fragmenting the market and weakening risk management. The forthcoming regulation is expected to address:
- Safety – technical requirements for spacecraft and orbit-traffic tracking;
- Security – protection against cyber threats and interference;
- Sustainability – mitigation of debris and light pollution, safeguarding astronomy.
2050 Scenarios: From Utopia to Deterrence
The European Parliamentary Research Service sketches four futures (EPRS_IDA(2025)765792):
- Inertia – the EU drifts and stays peripheral.
- Collaborative Space – global cooperation flourishes; Europe becomes a regulatory and innovation hub.
- Strategic Space Race – militarisation dominates; the EU arms late yet shields its assets.
- Undefended – fragmentation endangers autonomy and increases external dependence.
These narratives serve less as forecasts than as choices; each one derives from policies adopted today.
A Frontier of Governance and Power
For the EU, space poses a dual challenge. Governance: crafting a coherent legal framework that secures, regulates, and streamlines orbital activity. Power: reducing dependence, enhancing autonomy, and asserting strategic agency in a crowded sky.
An EU that seeks a role among the stars must first claim it on Earth—through budgets, norms, and ambition. In space, as on Earth, time is unforgiving.