In his article “Why Europe Must Avoid a Strategic Trap in a Post-American World”, Alexander Clarkson warns that the decline of US power could follow a similar path to the fall of the Roman Empire. He compares today’s tensions in US-European relations to the struggle of the Eastern Roman Empire after the collapse of the Western Empire. Clarkson argues that Trump’s weakening of US institutions has damaged America’s global role, and that some Republican leaders are openly hostile to European allies. This could lead to a historic rupture, like when the Roman legions left Western Europe. European leaders should learn from history, he says. Just as the Eastern Empire had to adapt and focus on its own survival, the EU should avoid trying to restore a past world order and instead strengthen its economy and defence at home. Clarkson warns against falling into a ‘Justinian trap’ – wasting energy and resources trying to rebuild a lost empire, as the Emperor Justinian did. He suggests that Europe should not copy the old American model but forge its own path, adapted to today’s multipolar world. He also notes that the EU must avoid relying too much on old systems in the economy and trade, such as US Treasury bonds or the post-World War II trading order. Instead, it should work with other global powers to build new, shared structures for stability. Finally, Clarkson says that even if the US doesn’t decline immediately, Europe must be ready. It needs the courage to imagine a different future and avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
Core Argument
- The decline of U.S. global power may mirror the fall of Ancient Rome.
- Trump’s presidency weakened U.S. institutions, shaking transatlantic foundations.
Historical Parallel
- Comparison with the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium) after the Western Empire’s collapse.
- Emperor Justinian’s costly attempt to restore the Western Empire = “Justinian Trap”.
Main Warnings
- Strategic Trap: Europe must avoid wasting resources trying to restore a U.S.-led order that no longer exists.
- False Security: Relying on past alliances (like the U.S.) can lead to dangerous complacency.
- New Realities: The EU should recognize changing geopolitical dynamics and act accordingly.
Lessons for the EU
- Focus inward: Strengthen internal economic and military resilience.
- Be pragmatic: Adapt to a multipolar world instead of chasing lost dominance.
- Avoid nostalgia: Don’t emulate outdated American models or revive obsolete trade/security systems.
- Build alliances: Cooperate with emerging powers through multilateral institutions.
Final Message
The U.S. might not collapse soon, but signs of long-term decline are clear.
Europe must prepare now—not by clinging to the past, but by shaping a stable future.