Month: April 2025

In his article “Why Europe Must Avoid a Strategic Trap in a Post-American World”, Alexander Clarkson warns that the decline of US power could follow a similar path to the fall of the Roman Empire. He compares today’s tensions in US-European relations to the struggle of the Eastern Roman Empire after the collapse of the Western Empire.
Continue reading Avoiding the strategic trap: what Europe can learn from the fall of Rome

The paradox of a strong dollar: the dollar lies at the center of the international monetary system. This grants the United States what was already described in the 1960s as an “exorbitant privilege” (B. Eichengreen): the ability to issue debt in a currency that the rest of the world wants to hold. However, this privilege has a
Continue reading Strong dollar – Weak dollar: a paradox

In The Age of Forever Wars: Why Military Strategy No Longer Delivers Victory (Published on Foreign Affairs, April 14, 2025), Lawrence D. Freedman offers a sobering critique of contemporary military strategy, revealing its dangerous reliance on outdated assumptions about the nature and duration of modern warfare. Central to his argument is the persistent “short war fallacy”—the
Continue reading The strategic illusion of quick victory

The term “dark logic” in this context seems to refer to the AI’s ability to derive effective strategies or solutions that are outside the realm of human reasoning, often leading to unexpected yet successful outcomes. We’ve entered a strange new era in which artificial intelligence doesn’t just imitate how we think—it begins to think in
Continue reading Winning without understanding: the rise of dark logic in AI

According to the Infranomics video analysis, it is difficult to determine with certainty who is selling U.S. Treasury securities. However, the author explores the possibility that China, Europe, and Japan are involved in such sales. His reasoning is based on an observed divergence between interest rate differentials and the strength of local currenciesduring the period in which the yield on the 10-year
Continue reading Who was selling U.S. treasury bonds?

Certainly, here is an overview of the growth of the U.S. national debt over the past 20 years, based on official data from the U.S. Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO): U.S. National Debt: 2005–2025 Year Total Federal Debt (USD Trillions) Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%) 2005 7.9 61.7 2008 10.0 67.7 2010 13.6 91.0 2015
Continue reading On the U.S. National debt

The article A Better Crystal Ball. The Right Way to Think About the Future by J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock published on October 13, 2020 by Foreign Affairs proposes a reflection on how policymakers can improve their ability to anticipate and manage future crises, overcoming the limitations of traditional and often ineffective approaches. Here is
Continue reading The art of thinking ahead

On July 12, 2023, the U.S. Congress introduced and advanced a bipartisan resolution—S.J. Res. 37—designed to prevent the President from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO). According to the text of the resolution, the President may not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the U.S. from NATO without either the advice and
Continue reading  U.S. legislation restricts Presidential authority to withdraw from NATO

In his latest piece, Noah Smith sounds the alarm: the U.S. may be experiencing capital flight — something usually seen in fragile economies. Investors are dumping U.S. bonds, selling dollars, and moving their money abroad. This is not normal. Bond yields are rising, but the dollar is falling and that’s not just a curious market quirk. It’s a rare and deeply
Continue reading Noah Smith: bond yields are rising, but the dollar is falling

In today’s tech-driven economy, success is increasingly measured by a company’s ability to craft compelling narratives that attract high valuations and continuous venture capital funding, rather than traditional metrics like profitability or dividends. Many leading U.S. companies have operated at a loss for years, relying on investments to dominate markets and outcompete rivals. A significant
Continue reading On subsidies and on competition: what is a good company in 2025 ?

CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks The speech offers a forceful and revisionist interpretation of the United States’ global role, centered on the claim that America has long shouldered the burden of maintaining both international security and the financial infrastructure of the global economy—essentially providing the world with what economists call “global public
Continue reading A forceful and revisionist interpretation of the United States’ global role: a doctrine of burden sharing

According to A. Castagnoli (La guerra fredda economica, Italia e Stati Uniti 1947-1989, Laterza, 2015) between 1947 and 1989, the United States deployed a broad arsenal of economic pressure tools—from conditional aid and trade barriers to embargoes, technology controls, and sanctions. These instruments served not only economic objectives but also the broader geopolitical strategy of
Continue reading A. Castagnoli, La guerra fredda economica. Italia e Stati Uniti 1947-1989 (The economic cold war. Italy and the United States 1947-1989), Laterza, Roma-Bari, 2015

The Trump administration has announced a major overhaul of the federal government’s approach to artificial intelligence, marking a decisive shift from the cautious approach of the previous administration. With two new directives – M-25-21 and M-25-22 – the White House is promoting an innovation-focused strategy aimed at strengthening US global leadership in AI and modernising
Continue reading USA and AI: Eliminating Barriers for Federal Artificial Intelligence Use and Procurement

General Framework On 20 January 2025, President Trump signed the America First Trade Policy memorandum, setting out a protectionist vision centered on tariffs as the primary trade tool. Key directives include: Tariffs and Key Measures Several waves of tariffs were quickly imposed: Legal Justification and Controversy The White House invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA, 1977) to justify these tariffs,
Continue reading On US Tariffs

Global supply chains today are shaped by tariffs, labor costs, geopolitical risks, and logistical complexity. While tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, consumers often bear the brunt. High U.S. production costs, especially in labor-intensive sectors, hinder competitiveness compared to countries like China and Mexico. The U.S. remains strong in low-labor, high-tech industries like jet engines, but mass manufacturing (e.g., smartphones) still favors offshoring. Supply chains for goods like toilet
Continue reading On supply chains

Paul Krugman has strongly criticised the Trump administration’s tariff plans, highlighting their serious and in some cases paradoxical economic implications. First, he stresses that the proposed tariffs are significantly higher than those imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, and points out that the US economy is now three times more open to international trade
Continue reading Paul Krugman and the Trump administration’s tariff plans.

Donald Trump’s tariff policy is not an isolated or improvised move. According to his advisors, it marks the first stage of a broader strategy to reshape the global economic order, aiming to reverse American deindustrialization and reassert the United States as a manufacturing power. Trump’s approach starts with what has been labeled tariff chaos —
Continue reading Understanding Trump’s tariff strategy: context, history, rationale, and goals

Carlo M. Cipolla, an Italian economic historian, introduced a compelling framework in his essay “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity” to categorise human behaviour based on the impact of one’s actions on oneself and others. This framework is often visualised as a Cartesian plane that divides individuals into four distinct categories: 1. Intelligent (upper right
Continue reading The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

In this piece, I build upon Andrea Fracasso’s insight, where he observes that “Some are suggesting a review of green economy regulations in the EU because of their impact on production costs. While it is necessary to consider the relevance of this phenomenon, it should be remembered that European technical requirements mean that only the
Continue reading Technical regulations as strategic tools

Andrea Fracasso, professor of Economic Policy at the School of International Studies and the Department of Economics and Management of the University of Trento. The tariffs imposed by the White House on the rest of the world are a shock of historic proportions. This, and the lack of clarity about the reasons behind them, has
Continue reading Andrea Fracasso: Is this the end of international trade? Everything you always wanted to know about US tariffs (but were afraid to ask)

The paper explores the dynamics of economic coercion and fragmentation within the international economic system, highlighting how major powers, particularly the United States and China, leverage their economic dominance over smaller nations by exploiting dependencies on essential resources, technology, or global financial services. According to Clayton, Maggiori, and Schreger, traditional benefits of globalization—such as specialization and
Continue reading Chris Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger – A theory of economic coercion and fragmentation

Albert O. Hirschman’s National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade explores the relationship between international commerce and national power, investigating how trade relations can become tools of political pressure. Hirschman introduces the concept of trade asymmetry: two nations can both benefit from international trade, yet these gains are often unevenly distributed, creating relationships of dependency and influence
Continue reading Albert O. Hirschman’s – National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade 

In essence, this method of calculation is profoundly misleading: It is not, as is claimed, an analysis of the actual customs tariffs (nor of the non-tariff barriers), but rather a crude arithmetical operation with no economic sense whatsoever. The reported procedure is as follows: The United States’ bilateral trade deficit with country X is divided
Continue reading US Tariffs: the political use of misleading numbers

Historical Context During the Cold War, the United States sought to gain strategic intelligence on Soviet military capabilities, particularly regarding submarine and missile technologies. In the early 1970s, U.S. intelligence agencies discovered the existence of an undersea communications cable in the Sea of Okhotsk, connecting the Soviet Pacific Fleet’s base at Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka
Continue reading Sigint: Operation Ivy Bells – Sea of Okhotsk, 1971–1981

Historical Context In October 1962, the United States discovered Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles being installed in Cuba, just 90 miles from its shores. This revelation triggered the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tense 13-day standoff between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. To monitor the missile installations, the U.S. conducted high-altitude reconnaissance missions using Lockheed U-2
Continue reading Sigint: The 1962 U-2 Shootdown over Cuba – October 27, 1962

Historical context: During the Cold War, the United States conducted regular signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations using both aircraft and naval vessels to monitor the electronic communications of rival states. These missions were crucial to national security strategy and often took place in close proximity to the territorial waters of adversaries such as the Soviet Union,
Continue reading Sigint: The USS Pueblo Incident – Sea of Japan, January 23, 1968

Historical context: During the Cold War, electronic intelligence (SIGINT) missions were a vital part of U.S. strategic operations. American aircraft routinely patrolled the peripheries of Soviet, Chinese, and North Korean airspace, collecting communications and radar data. These were unarmed reconnaissance flights, operating in what the U.S. classified as international airspace, but always within geopolitical hot
Continue reading Sigint: The EC-121 Incident – Sea of Japan, April 15, 1969